With Super Bowl LIX now just hours away, what will football fans be watching for when the Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles for the Lombardi Trophy? Is it if Saquon Barkley can continue his postseason hot streak and carry Philly to glory? How about Vic Fangio's game plan on limiting Patrick Mahomes as a scrambler? Those are interesting storylines, but the main one is clearly officiating. The refs!
Yes, the refs and their alleged love for the Chiefs. Kansas City benefitted from a couple of questionable penalties in its divisional-round victory against the Houston Texans, which caused multiple Texans players to lash out and receive fines from the league. Then, in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship game, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was ruled short of the line to gain on a fourth down, even though it appeared he had enough to move the chains.
This 'ref' narrative has been talked about all week. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell was asked about it during his Super Bowl press conference, and executive director of the NFL Referees Association Scott Green put out a passionate statement, saying: "It is insulting and preposterous to hear conspiracy theories that somehow 17 officiating crews consisting of 138 officials are colluding to assist one team." Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce also asked reporters on Super Bowl Opening Night why they were "leaning into the whole ref thing."
Is there actually a penalty disparity when it comes to the Chiefs and their opponents? Let's take a look at some numbers from CBS Sports Research.
2024 penalties (regular season and playoffs)
| Team | Penalties (NFL rank) | Opponent penalties (NFL rank) | 2024 playoff penalties | 2024 playoff opponent penalties |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 5.4 per game (31st) | 6.4 per game (14th most in NFL) | 4.5 per game | 7 per game |
Eagles | 5.9 per game (24th) | 5.3 per game (2nd fewest) | 5 per game | 6.6 per game |
The Chiefs were the second-least penalized team in the league this past season, while their opponents were penalized a somewhat average amount. What really stands out about this data is that Eagles' opponents were not committing many penalties -- or not being called for penalties -- as they averaged just 5.3 flags per game.
There isn't a major takeaway from the playoff penalty stats, but if we zoom out from just this year, we did discover some fascinating numbers.
The Chiefs have gone 12 straight playoff games where their opponent has been penalized more than them. It's tied for the second-longest streak in playoff history. The Chiefs have recorded 41 postseason penalties since 2021, while their opponents have been penalized 72 times. For context, the Chiefs recorded more penalties than their opponents in 25 of 68 regular-season games (just 37%) since 2021. Are the Chiefs just more disciplined?
While we are discussing the amount of flags thrown for or against these two teams, the issue may be the kinds of penalties being called. Would Mahomes have more success drawing an unnecessary roughness penalty if he embellished a slight bump while going out of bounds following a rush attempt compared to Jalen Hurts or another quarterback? The raw data doesn't scream that officials are wearing red-colored glasses, but it's clear officiating will be under a microscope on Sunday. In Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs were penalized three times for 14 yards, while the Eagles were penalized six times for 33 yards.
