Repeat after me: I'm not going to outsmart anyone anymore.
Maybe you don't want to repeat that. Maybe you don't believe it to be true for you. Maybe, deep down, you've always thought I was an idiot, so of course it's true for me. But not you, no.
And maybe you're right! I don't know who you're playing against, so I can't say for sure. But I'll tell you that, in Tout Wars, I'm playing against some real baddies. This is the most storied network of leagues in Fantasy Baseball history, after all, so everyone participating in them knows that they're doing. And those who know what they're doing in the year 2025 kind of know everything there is to know.
I'm not saying there won't be further breakthroughs in the field of player evaluation. There are every year, after all. What I am saying is that our collective understanding of what makes players good or bad has more or less plateaued. Sabermetrics got the ball rolling. Statcast filled in the remaining gaps. It's all so accessible and well understood by now that there isn't much room for disagreement. It doesn't mean we know the future, but we know as much as we can know about the future. The degree to which we still disagree is mostly built on hunches and guesses.
And hunches and guesses aren't reliable enough.
You know what is reliable? Consensus thinking. Sure, I could lean into my own thoughts about players and where I think they should go, and, in doing so, I'll beat the consensus sometimes because the future is, of course, unknown. But I won't do it reliably enough to make my own thinking the center of my drafting philosophy. Not anymore.
Turns out I came to this realization just in time for a Tout Wars draft that didn't play out the way I thought it would -- not even close, in fact. Faced with that disappointment, I could have dug in my heels, doubled down on my vision, and come away with a malformed roster only vaguely resembling the one I imagined.
Instead, I went with the flow, reasoning that if I could no longer win by departing from the consensus on a player, perhaps I could win by capitalizing on those moments when my league departed from the consensus on a player. In other words, I should just accept the values, in whatever form the presented themselves, and work from there.
I should stop making a plan, in other words. Or to the degree I have a plan, I should have it be this: Be nimble.
Because I'm not going to outsmart anyone anymore, particularly not these people.
Let's see how it came together.
My team is shown below. You can find the full draft results here.
Startling lineup (round number in parentheses):
C - Drake Baldwin, ATL (27)
C - Dalton Rushing, LAD (28)
1B - Bryce Harper, PHI (2)
2B - Ozzie Albies, ATL (6)
3B - Royce Lewis, MIN (11)
SS - Corey Seager, TEX (3)
MI - C.J. Abrams, WAS (5)
CI - Ryan Mountcastle, BAL (15)
OF - Mike Trout, LAA (7)
OF - Brandon Nimmo, NYM (8)
OF - Jurickson Profar, ATL (10)
OF - Victor Robles, SEA (17)
OF - Michael Conforto, LAD (18)
DH - Brice Turang, MIL (14)
SP - Tarik Skubal, DET (1)
SP - Chris Sale, ATL (4)
SP - Justin Steele, CHC (9)
RP - Jordan Romano, PHI (12)
SP - Bryan Woo, SEA (13)
RP - Lucas Erceg, KC (16)
RP - Calvin Faucher, MIA (20)
SP - Cody Bradford, TEX (21)
SP - Kris Bubic, KC (22)
Bench:
2B - Kristian Campbell, BOS (19)
OF - Andy Pages, LAD (23)
RP - Edwin Uceta, TB (24)
SP - Chris Bassitt, TOR (25)
SP - Jameson Taillon, CHC (26)
SP - Mike Soroka, WAS (29)
Perhaps you're wondering why, for all my insistence on not drafting pitchers early, I took one with my very first pick. And then also with my fourth pick, giving me two of the top 11 starting pitchers drafted overall. Um ... did I mention I was going with the flow?
That expression, "going with the flow," may not be the best choice in this instance because it connotes an easy-going attitude and quiet self-assurance. In actuality, I was tilting to the point of despondence. I can't tell you the way my heart sank when I realized what I had done after 56 frenzied seconds of not knowing what to do.
But in retrospect, the reasoning is sound. First, you should know that this is a 15-team Rotisserie league that uses on-base percentage instead of batting average. Critical detail, that one. Picking 13th and being familiar with ADP, I planned to get Yordan Alvarez there and pair him with Bryce Harper in Round 2 to give me a sturdy foundation in on-base percentage. As much as we talk about batting average being concentrated at the top of drafts, OBP is even more so. The batting average specialists that you'll find later in drafts generally don't walk much, so their OBPs end up being nothing special. Alvarez, then, seemed like an essential choice for giving me a head start in that scarcest category, and he was set to be mine, all mine! Unfortunately, he ended up going ... 12th, one pick ahead of mine.
What else could I do? Well, normally, I'd be fine taking Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis or Julio Rodriguez instead, but have you checked out their walk rates? In an OBP league, a category that's normally thought to be a potential a strength for them (batting average) becomes a surefire weakness. They just didn't seem like they'd give me enough of an edge in anything scarce enough to warrant my first pick. Skubal, provided he stays healthy (always an important caveat for pitchers), stood a better chance of doing so. It's not how I'd prefer to use my first pick, but it was the best option afforded to me at Pick 13 of an OBP league.
Maybe I should have doubled down with Paul Skenes in Round 2, huh? The thought crossed my mind. But no, I still wanted that sturdy OBP foundation, not to mention an early fix at what I consider to be a weak position, so I took Harper as planned.
And I'm so glad I did. My initial mistake of underestimating where Alvarez would be drafted turned out to be a forecast of things to come. The draft quickly devolved into a race for anyone who could make a positive contribution in on-base percentage.Together, we set out to draft them all until they were gone, basically. Some of the biggest eyebrow-raisers included Kyle Schwarber at 17 (ahead of Harper, crazily enough), Willson Contreras at 50, Seiya Suzuki at 59, Triston Casas at 72, Ian Happ at 74, Vinnie Pasquantino at 75, Christian Yelich at 89, Tyler Stephenson at 92 (probably the biggest head-scratcher of the draft), Taylor Ward at 127, Yandy Diaz at 150, and, well, you get the idea.
Looking back at how high the upcharge was for on-base percentage, it's a minor miracle that I got Harper at the start of Round 2 (Pick 18) and a major one that I got Corey Seager at the end of Round 3 (Pick 43). Recognizing that I had to keep adding to OBP before the supply ran out, I also contributed to its inflation with Mike Trout in Round 7 (Pick 103), Brandon Nimmo in Round 8 (Pick 108) and Jurickson Profar in Round 10 (Pick 138). All three have their concerns (more on those in a bit), but I didn't prioritize OBP early in the draft just to give it all away in the rounds to follow.
But of course, not every hitter in an OBP league needs to be an OBP darling, and in the league-wide push for OBP, some of those who excel in the other four categories slid down draft boards. I spent the first half of the draft walking the fine line between feeding the OBP monster and capitalizing on the discounts from everyone else doing so, and because my early surplus at starting pitcher allowed me to ignore that side of the game for a while, I think I managed to pull it off. My most notable hitter bargains included C.J. Abrams at Pick 73 (ADP of 46 in traditional 5x5 leagues), Ozzie Albies at Pick 78 (ADP of 57), Royce Lewis at Pick 163 (ADP of 115) and Brice Turang at Pick 198 (ADP of 125).
What I like about my team
I'm well covered for saves without having paid out the nose for them. My top reliever, Jordan Romano, certainly isn't as safe as the seven that went off the board in Rounds 3 and 4, but he could be nearly as impactful if he proves to be fully recovered from last year's elbow trauma. Meanwhile, I drafted three other relievers (Lucas Erceg, Calvin Faucher and Edwin Uceta) who are a part of their teams' saves mix. If any two of my four relievers emerges as the go-to option for his team, which seems pretty likely, I'll be among the leaders in the category.
I'm well off in the pitching categories in general. That's how things should be when you invest two of your first four picks in starting pitchers, but I made sure that my third and fourth options (Justin Steele in Round 9 and Bryan Woo in Round 13) were ratio darlings that wouldn't drag down my ERA and WHIP. Even my fifth and sixth starting pitchers (Cody Bradford in Round 21 and Kris Bubic in Round 22) are likelier a help than a hindrance in those two categories. I also made sure my bench was well stocked with starting pitchers for when attrition inevitably kicks in. One way to wreck your team ERA and WHIP in a league of this size is to rely too much on waiver wire pitchers.
I'm well stocked in stolen bases. This wasn't a given when I waited until Round 5 to take my first base-stealer, but between that C.J. Abrams pick, the Brice Turang pick in Round 14 and the Victor Robles pick in Round 17 (just three players), I should have upward of 120 steals. And of course, there will be smaller stolen base contributions throughout the rest of my lineup.
I gave myself a chance to win the lottery with Kristian Campbell at Pick 283. He's an elite prospect who seems poised for significant playing time with the Red Sox. I've made the mistake in the past of relaying too much on such players -- multiple, and in starting spots -- but the opportunity cost here was minimal. And if he clicks, he should contribute across the board and potentially at multiple positions. (I expect him to be eligible in the outfield at some point.)
I didn't have to settle for part-time hitters. One of the challenges in a deeper league like this is filling out a lineup with full-time players, and with the notable exception of catcher (more on that in a bit), I managed to do that. Not every team was so fortunate, and, in theory, I should have an advantage in the counting stats because of it. In theory ...
What I don't like about my team
Yeah ... there's some injury risk for sure. It's not even so much Chris Sale specifically as the fact I made such a big investment in starting pitching. I'm well aware how that can go, having selected Gerrit Cole with my first pick in this league last year.
And then there are hitters. Mike Trout and Royce Lewis simply can't be trusted to stay healthy, and Brandon Nimmo is still battling the plantar fasciitis that plagued him last year. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper and Corey Seager are no strangers to injury themselves. If and when things go wrong for Trout, I can hope that one of Kristian Campbell and Andy Pages is ready to step in, but I have no recourse at third base. I wish it wasn't so, but between meeting all the positional needs, meeting all the categorical needs and keeping the OBP monster well fed, drafting players with a solid health history simply fell by the wayside.
No, I didn't plan to have have a prospect in each of my catcher slots. Catcher values were weird all around. I mentioned how early Tyler Stephenson was drafted, but he along with Shea Langeliers, Logan O'Hoppe, Francisco Alvarez and Austin Wells went ahead of J.T. Realmuto, who lasted to Pick 156. So why didn't I take him? Well, I was gearing up to, but he didn't quite make it to me in Round 11. I also nearly pulled the trigger on Sean Murphy in Round 18 and Joey Bart in Round 20, but I thought the Michael Conforto and Kristian Campbell picks were too important.
After that, there didn't seem to be much point. Sure, I could identify catchers with slightly more upside or slightly preferable situations, but the most-likely scenario for all of them is something like a .240 batting average and 10 homers. I'd say that's also the most-likely scenario for some of those that went undrafted, like Travis d'Arnaud and Jacob Stallings. Drake Baldwin and Dalton Rushing at least give me a chance at something more. Baldwin might open the year as a starter, in fact, with Murphy sidelined by a cracked rib, and I suspect Rushing will eventually take on a hybrid role as backup catcher and part-time outfielder for the Dodgers. I can fill in with scrubby d'Arnaud and Stallings types in the meantime.
